Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take‐off?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to portray four scenarios for the future of Sudan in the year 2012. On the basis of these scenarios it aims to draw a number of conclusions on the future of Sudan and the way ahead. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the Shell methodology for scenario building and is based on five scenario workshops held in Sudan, one in The Netherlands, interviews and literature research. The four scenarios not only intend to provide an overview of what is likely to happen, but also aim to be plausible, challenging and creative. Findings The paper finds that the future of Sudan is likely to remain violent and that the most optimistic scenario is also the least likely. It concludes that, although outside mediation and assistance in the organization of elections are needed, the critical difference between a successful and an unsuccessful outcome will to a large extent be determined by whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership. Practical implications The paper provides a number of policy recommendations for the international community to prevent the worst from happening and to be prepared for what may come. Originality/value The paper aims to fill the gap in future foresight with regard to Sudan and for this purpose utilized the knowledge among the Sudanese themselves.