Scenarios for universal electricity access with spatial changes in urbanisation: The case of Kenya

Kenya has one of the fastest electrification rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the increase in electrification rates, rural and underserved regions remain a critical challenge requiring a cost-effective strategy that maximises the use of stand-alone and off-grid solutions. This paper uses the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool coupled with a binomial logistic regression model of urbanisation to explore least-cost electrification scenarios for universal access in Kenya. The premise is that as more areas are electrified and the population increases, more regions will likely become urban, leading to changes in their electricity demand. The regression model reveals at least four regions where new urban settlements will likely be concentrated: central Kenya, the coastline, and the border regions to the west and north of Kenya. Electrification scenarios prioritising off-grid ($5.2 billion) and stand-alone solutions ($1.8 billion) significantly reduce the required investment compared to scenarios prioritising grid extension ($8.1 billion). Given the crucial role of stand-alone solutions in minimising costs associated with electricity access, this paper suggests a shift in policy to promote the uptake of stand-alone systems over the previous focus on grid extension and large-scale projects that have dominated Kenya's energy policy landscape.