Schools on Fire: How Violent Protest Disrupts Kenyan Politics

Violent protest can be an important ‘weapon of the weak’ (Scott, 2000). It draws the attention of the public and can therefore be a rational choice for groups that lack political access. However, studies have found mixed results whether violent protest is effective in achieving political goals. Whereas some contend that violent protest increases awareness about legitimate grievances and concerns about future violence, others argue that it produces a backlash that makes violence ineffective or even counterproductive. Furthermore, studies that identify causal effects have emerged only recently and focused on the United States. This study extends the existing literature by exploring the political effectiveness of school arson in Kenya. The study consists of a priming experiment to estimate how exposure to news about school fires affects political attitudes. It complements a prior study--not part of this pre-registration--that uses a difference-in-difference design with geocoded survey data and exploits the quasi-random locations of school fires to analyze effects on public opinion.