Selecting Vaccine Distribution Center Locations: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach

Vaccination infrastructure planning in low- and middle-income countries remains a critical challenge for strategic management, particularly in large and diverse nations such as Nigeria. This study presents a structured decision-support approach for locating regional vaccine distribution centers using Multi-Criteria Decision Making/Aiding (MCDM/A), specifically the ELECTRE III method. Publicly available data were used to construct a context-specific set of criteria involving healthcare access, infrastructure, population density, economic capacity, and security conditions. These were quantified, normalized, and weighted using the Rank Order Centroid method. Thresholds were statistically derived based on criterion variability. Two state-level allocation strategies were compared: one combining minimum geographic fairness with ELECTRE rankings, and one based solely on ELECTRE outputs. The first method, which includes a baseline of one center per state and caps allocations at four, proved more equitable across Nigeria’s vast territory. At the Local Government Area level, the most suitable administrative units within each state were selected based on localized criteria. The results offer a practical and replicable framework for data-driven planning of vaccination infrastructure and demonstrate how MCDM/A can support strategic public health decision-making under data and capacity constraints.