Software suite of forecast evaluation tools

The software suite “Validation of Seasonal Forecasts Issued by ICPAC” (SeaVal) is the culmination of

the CONFER WP3 Task 3 (WP3.1) deliverable – a custom suite of evaluation metrics for seasonal

forecasts. An appropriate evaluation framework is a fundamental tool for producing and improving

forecasting products. This activity is thus an important building block towards the overarching WP3

objective to produce user-relevant and skillful seasonal forecasts, and to present them in user-

friendly interfaces.

The SeaVal software suite is designed to judge the quality of seasonal forecasts focusing on the

Greater Horn of Africa region and forecast products currently included in the seasonal outlook issued

by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Center

(ICPAC). Specifically, the evaluation metrics are aimed to evaluate mean forecasts, tercile forecasts

and exceedance probabilities. The evaluation applies to forecast products at various temporal and

spatial scales. SeaVal furthermore includes functionality for providing tailored summaries and

visualizations for the Greater Horn of Africa region as well as individual countries within the region.

The software is written as a freely-available package for the programming language R and comes

with a detailed tutorial.