Spatial Distribution of Ungoverned Spaces and Their Security Implications in Zamfara State, Nigeria

Northwest Nigeria, particularly Zamfara State, has become one of the most visible theatres of rural insecurity in the country, with armed banditry, kidnapping, and cattle rustling increasingly linked to the existence of remote, weakly serviced territories that lie beyond the effective reach of state institutions. This study identifies and maps ungoverned spaces in Zamfara State using a Boolean multi-criteria geospatial analysis founded on proximity to four indicators of state and social presence: settlements, health facilities, schools, and markets. Multiple ring buffers of 1 km, 3 km and 5 km were generated around each infrastructure layer using GRID3 datasets, converted to raster format, and reclassified on a standardised 1–10 remoteness scale. The four reclassified layers were thresholded into Boolean surfaces and summed into a composite Ungoverned Space Score (0–4), from which cells scoring 3 or above were classified as ungoverned. The analysis, covering the period 2024–2025, delineated approximately 3,897 km² of ungoverned space out of a total assessed area of 33,561.95 km², representing roughly 11.6% of the state, concentrated mainly along the southern and south-eastern local government areas bordering forest reserves and inter-state frontiers. These findings spatially reinforce existing qualitative accounts of banditry hotspots in the state and demonstrate the value of space technology and Boolean overlay analysis as a low-cost, replicable tool for governance-gap diagnosis, security planning, and development prioritisation in conflict-affected regions of Nigeria.