Spatial model of groundwater contamination risks from pit-latrines to 2070: Case Study Malawi

Abstract Pit-latrines are central to achieving SDG6, “clean water and sanitation for all”. Unless safely managed, pit-latrines result in groundwater contamination, which increases morbidity and mortality. Despite this, there have been no long-term spatial projections of future pit-latrine contamination risks. National survey data of over 100,000 water-points and 260,000 pit-latrines in Malawi was used to generate a novel, high-resolution model of pit-latrines from 2020–2070 under 5 population, and 3 sanitation policy, scenarios. The ‘business as usual’ model predicts a three-fold increase in the number of water-points at risk of microbial pit-latrine contamination between 2020–2070, with a seven-fold increase in the highest contamination risks. Current nitrogen loading into pit-latrines is comparable to national fertiliser application. The model predicts 8.2 mega-tonnes of faecal nitrogen will be disposed of into subsequently abandoned pit-latrines between 2020–2070. Guided intervention is necessary to prevent SDG6’s push for sanitation undermining its goal of clean water.