Spatial Temporal Evaluation of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EBA) Interventions on Land use Dynamics and Ecological Changes in the Lake Karago Catchment of Nyabihu District, Rwanda

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can improve ecosystem condition, reduce land degradation, and strengthen the capacity of landscapes and communities to respond to climate-related pressures. However, its contribution must be evaluated against clearly identified interventions and interpreted within the limits of available baseline information. This study assessed fcurrentEbA actions implemented in the Lake Karago catchment: agroforestry, radical and bench terracing, forest restoration through afforestation and enrichment planting, and riparian or riverbank restoration using buffer zones and vegetation strips. A catchment-wide before-and-after comparison of land use and land cover in 2005 and 2025 was integrated with transition analysis, spatial clustering, field observations, key-informant interviews, and evidence from community respondents. Integrating these sources strengthened interpretation by linking measurable landscape changes with local knowledge and ecological outcomes. The analysis revealed substantial changes in major land-cover categories. Cropland declined from 3,783.81 ha in 2005 to 1,972.90 ha in 2025, while forest expanded from 973.44 ha to 2,328.13 ha. Grassland also increased markedly, from 257.81 ha to 1,094.40 ha, whereas water bodies remained broadly stable. These patterns are consistent with forest restoration, the withdrawal or reorganization of cultivation on erosion-prone slopes associated with terracing, the expansion of agroforestry systems, and revegetation along rivers and streams. Land-cover transition hotspots were concentrated in areas where terracing, riverbank protection, and vegetation restoration were reported. In contrast, cold spots highlighted locations where intervention influence appeared weaker or ecological recovery was less pronounced, demonstrating that benefits were spatially uneven across the catchment. Field observations and community evidence supported the remote-sensing results. Key informants and residents reported vegetation regeneration, improved habitat quality, reduced visible degradation, and the return or increased presence of bird species, including observations around the Karago Birding Site. Together, these findings suggest that the four EbA actions contributed to ecological recovery, improved landscape connectivity, and greater catchment resilience. Nevertheless, intervention-specific baseline boundaries, implementation dates, and control sites were unavailable. The results therefore demonstrate credible spatial association and converging evidence, rather than exclusive causation. Continued monitoring, mapped intervention records, and repeated ecological surveys are recommended to distinguish the individual and combined effects of each EbA action and guide future investment. Key words: Ecosystem-Based Adaptation, Land Use, Land Cover, Spatial Clustering, Ecological Restoration