Stochastic model for the prediction of short time number of fire accident occurrence in Niger State using Viterbi Algorithm

Créateur:

I LL. N.EA,

Éditeur:

Afr

Hôte:

In this paper, we look into ways by which fire outbreak (accident) can be suppressed. A stochastic model that predicts the number of fire accident occurrence in Niger State using Viterbi Algorithm is presented. A three-State stochastic model was formulated using the principle of Markov and each state of the model has four possible observations. The parameters of the model were estimated using the fire accident data collected from the archive of Niger State Fire Service, after which the model was trained using Baum-welch Algorithm to attend maximum likelihood. The Validity test for the model recorded 75% accuracy for short time prediction and shows 50% accuracy for long time prediction. This indicates that the model is more reliable and dependable for short time prediction.Information for this study could serve as a guide to the government in policy formulation that might assist in curbing the number of fire accident occurrences in Niger State.

Visit

doi.org

Similaires

A Short-Term Prediction Model for the Number of Registered Motor Vehicles Using Facebook Prophet Forecasting ApproachA Stochastic SIRV Model to Estimate The Effective Reproductive Number for Measles Epidemic in NigerShort Term Power Demand Prediction Using Stochastic Gradient BoostingANALYSIS OF SOKOTO STATE ROAD ACCIDENT AND PREDICTION OF ACCIDENT SEVERITY USING MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUEPREDICTION OF THE NUMBER OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS OCCURRENCE ON THE LOKOJA-ABUJA-KADUNA EXPRESSWAY USING GREY-ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODELHighlighting Biome-Specific Sensitivity of Fire Size Distributions to Time-Gap Parameter Using a New Algorithm for Fire Event Individuation

A Short-Term Prediction Model for the Number of Registered Motor Vehicles Using Facebook Prophet Forecasting Approach

Accurate prediction of the total annual number of motor vehicles to be registered in a country is ve

A Stochastic SIRV Model to Estimate The Effective Reproductive Number for Measles Epidemic in Niger

International audience Aims/ objectives: Cyclic recurrence of measles epidemics in de

Short Term Power Demand Prediction Using Stochastic Gradient Boosting

Power prediction demand is vital in power system and delivery engineering fields. By efficiently pre

ANALYSIS OF SOKOTO STATE ROAD ACCIDENT AND PREDICTION OF ACCIDENT SEVERITY USING MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUE

PREDICTION OF THE NUMBER OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS OCCURRENCE ON THE LOKOJA-ABUJA-KADUNA EXPRESSWAY USING GREY-ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Globally, Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) rank among the leading causes of death, a situation exacerba

Highlighting Biome-Specific Sensitivity of Fire Size Distributions to Time-Gap Parameter Using a New Algorithm for Fire Event Individuation

Detailed spatial-temporal characterization of individual fire dynamics using remote sensing data is