Targeting hotspots to reduce transmission of malaria in Senegal: modeling of the effects of human mobility

Abstract Background In central Senegal malaria incidences have declined in recent years in response to scaling-up of control measures, but now remains stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. Methods By using a meta-population mathematical model, we evaluated chemotherapy interventions targeting stable malaria hotspots, using a differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility, and fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages, over 5 years. Three simulated approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with at least one malaria case during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages ranked highest in terms of incidence during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages ranked based on the degree of connectivity with adjacent populations. Results Our mathematical modeling, taking into account human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots should be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both treated and untreated areas. Conclusions Mathematical simulations showed that targeted interventions allow increasing malaria elimination potential.