The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

International audience The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughoutSouth East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespreaddistribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to manycountries. CLIMEXTM was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climaticconditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics andsubtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern MediterraneanEurope. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in thesouth-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be coldstress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis isprojected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However,the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decreasesubstantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World TradeOrganization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climatechange when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areasof uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis isstriking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable rangemore than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.