The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Labour Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study examines the effects of HIV/AIDS prevalence, labour force growth, and gross fixed capital formation on labour productivity in Sub-Saharan African countries from 2010 to 2024. Panel data techniques, including panel unit root tests, Kao's residual cointegration test, pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects estimations, were employed. The Hausman specification test identified the Random Effects Model as the preferred estimator, while an error correction model was estimated to examine the short-run adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The findings from the preferred Random Effects Model indicate that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on labour productivity. Similarly, labour force growth has a negative but statistically insignificant influence on labour productivity, suggesting that increases in labour supply alone do not significantly improve or reduce productivity across Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, gross fixed capital formation exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on labour productivity, highlighting the critical role of capital accumulation in enhancing productive capacity. These findings imply that improvements in labour productivity depend more on investment in productive capital than on labour force expansion. Accordingly, the study recommends policies that promote public and private investment in gross fixed capital formation while strengthening HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes and investing in human capital to enhance long-term labour productivity.