THE INFECTION-ENCAPSULATION MODEL — APPLICATION TO <i>DROSOPHILA SIMULANS</i> AND <i>LEPTOPILINA BOULARDI</i> STRAINS FROM TUNISIA

Some larvae of Drosophila infected by parasitic wasps are able to encapsulate the larvae of the parasitoid, and the emerging hosts present a visible melanized capsule in the abdomen. In this paper, a model for estimating the infection rate RI by the rate of hosts presenting a capsule HC is developed. For Drosophila simulans parasitized by Leptopilina boulardi, the model RI = HC/(k+(1-k)HC), with k=0.123, is validated from experimental data. The validation process is based upon a bootstrap strategy over 12870 possibilities of grouping 8 elementary experimental results among 16. Validation consists in fitting the theoretical curve from a data set and in controlling the overlap of the curve with the confidence rectangle established with the complementary data set. This validation process appears to be independent of the confidence level. This infection-encapsulation model is applied to field observations in Tunisia and predicts high levels of infection. This prediction is confirmed at Nasr'Allah by a direct measure of the infection rate. The biological hypotheses involved in this model are discussed. The model merely allows one to follow the evolution of infection in population cages and in the wild, by catching and counting adult hosts, without access to breeding sites. The model is generalisable to other species of hosts and parasitoids presenting the encapsulation reaction.