The Infrastructure–Industrialisation Paradox: Explaining Why Transport Corridor Investments Do Not Automatically Deliver Structural Transformation in Southern Africa

: Infrastructure development has become central to economic transformation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly within regional integration initiatives aimed at improving trade competitiveness and industrial development. Despite substantial investment in transport corridors, border modernisation and logistics infrastructure, evidence of their contribution to industrialisation remains mixed. This study examines the infrastructure-industrialisation paradox by investigating why improvements in transport efficiency do not consistently translate into structural transformation. Using a convergent mixed-methods design, the study draws on survey data from 300 respondents, twenty-five key informant interviews, six focus group discussions and secondary trade statistics from Zimbabwe and Zambia, focusing on the Kazungula Bridge and the upgraded Beitbridge Border Post. The findings indicate that infrastructure investment significantly improved border clearance times, regional connectivity and trade facilitation but did not generate sustained manufacturing growth, industrial diversification or broad-based enterprise development. Institutional weaknesses, fragmented industrial policy, limited access to productive finance, weak regional value chain integration and governance challenges emerged as the principal constraints. In response, the study proposes the Infrastructure Transformation Cascade Model (ITCM), a theoretically grounded and empirically informed framework demonstrating that infrastructure investment is a necessary but insufficient condition for structural transformation. The study concludes with policy recommendations for integrating transport infrastructure with industrial policy, enterprise development and institutional reform across Southern Africa.