The Intersection of Climate Displacement and Conflict Migration in the Mediterranean Region

The Mediterranean region has emerged as a critical nexus where climate-induced environmental pressures intersect with armed conflict and socioeconomic instability to shape complex patterns of human displacement. This paper examines the climate-conflict-migration nexus in the Mediterranean, drawing on recent empirical research and policy analyses to demonstrate that climate displacement is not a future scenario but an existing reality. Based on 70 semi-structured interviews with migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers from 17 climatevulnerable countries across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East, the research reveals how extreme weather events-including floods, droughts, and heatwaves-intersect with traditional migration drivers such as poverty, armed conflict, and human rights violations. The findings indicate that while perceptions of climate change's role in migration decisions vary, participants' testimonies consistently demonstrate that climate-related disasters triggered or exacerbated their displacement, functioning either as a primary driver or as a threat multiplier that compounds existing vulnerabilities. The Mediterranean serves as both a major migration corridor from Africa and Asia and a region particularly exposed to climate risks, including water scarcity, agricultural decline, and extreme weather events that threaten food security and livelihoods. Projections indicate that environmental stresses will intensify, with the productivity of staple crops such as wheat and maize in Egypt projected to decline by 15% and 19% respectively by 2050, further hindering food security and shaping migration decisions. This paper identifies significant governance challenges, including the lack of a clear legal framework for climate-displaced persons, who do not qualify as "refugees" under the 1951 Refugee Convention. While climate-induced migration is increasingly recognised in global frameworks such as the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, implementation gaps persist, including limited regional policy coordination, weak integration across policy fields, and reactive crisis-response approaches. The paper argues that addressing the climate-conflict-migration nexus requires integrated governance strategies that combine climate adaptation, conflict prevention, and migration management, alongside enhanced regional cooperation and climate action in the Global South to address root causes of displacement.