The TMA framework: reflections on its implementation in the PACES project

Migration aspirations, how they emerge, and what they signal have been a central concern in migration research. However, it remains difficult to answer why similar external conditions and mechanisms lead one person to aspire to migrate while another, in the same circumstances, chooses to stay. To study this decision-making process, we proposed the Temporal Multilevel Analysis (TMA) framework, which studies how people develop aspirations to either stay or migrate. The framework embeds individuals in a changing society (social transformation) as their life unfolds (life course), recognizing that decisions are shaped by both societal conditions and personal circumstances. The TMA framework accounts for time – since people’s perspectives are based on past experiences, the present situation and future expectations – and place – as migrants reevaluate the decision to stay, return or migrate onward as they move along their journey. Migration and non-migration policies also play a role in shaping society and migration options. Ultimately, this framework was proposed to analyze both tangible and intangible factors that shape decisions to stay and migrate among residents and migrants in eight countries (five in Africa and three in Europe), thus considering economic and political factors alongside social norms, values, security and social protection. But how valuable was it in practice? This paper offers a thoughtful analysis of the application of this framework. It reflects on the concepts, analytical dimensions and key questions we established at the outset of the project and assesses the benefits and limitations of the analytical framework as applied in the PACES project. We conclude the paper with the main lessons learned and some ideas of how this framework could be used in the future.