Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation for Off-Grid Community Systems in South Africa,

Recent technological advancements have led to an increase in off-grid community systems aimed at providing electricity to remote areas of South Africa. A time-series forecasting model was applied to historical data from off-grid community systems across various sites in South Africa, incorporating robust standard errors to account for uncertainties in the input data and forecast outcomes. The analysis revealed a fluctuating reliability pattern over the study period, with some systems showing an improvement rate of up to 20% in annual energy supply efficiency. This research provides evidence that time-series forecasting models can effectively predict system performance under varying conditions and contribute to more informed decision-making for future off-grid projects. Policy makers should consider the reliability trends identified, particularly where systems are near their operational limits, to enhance service delivery and reduce maintenance costs. off-grid communities, time-series forecasting, energy supply efficiency, policy implications The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.