Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation of Community Health Centres in Senegal: A Methodological Study,

Community health centres in Senegal have been identified as crucial for healthcare delivery but require systematic evaluation to optimise their performance. The study will employ an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for predicting future trends based on historical data from Senegalese community health centres. Uncertainty around predictions will be assessed using robust standard errors. An initial analysis suggests a moderate improvement in healthcare yield, with forecasts indicating potential growth rates of up to 15% within the next year. The ARIMA model provides a robust framework for forecasting future performance and guiding policy decisions aimed at enhancing community health centre efficiency. Implementation of the model should be followed by continuous monitoring and adjustment based on feedback from stakeholders. Community Health Centres, Time-Series Forecasting, Healthcare Yield Improvement, ARIMA Model Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.