Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation of Municipal Water Systems in South Africa,

This study focuses on evaluating municipal water systems in South Africa by forecasting future yield improvements. A time-series forecasting model was developed using historical data from municipal water systems. The model incorporates ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology to predict future yield improvements. The analysis revealed an average annual increase in predicted yield by 5% over the forecast period, with a confidence interval of ±2%. This indicates potential for significant resource management improvements. The ARIMA model effectively forecasts municipal water system yields, showing promise for enhancing resource sustainability and management strategies. Implementing these findings could lead to more efficient use of municipal resources, reducing wastage and improving overall service quality. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.