Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating District Hospital Systems in South Africa: A Reliability Assessment

District hospitals in South Africa face challenges related to service delivery and financial sustainability. A time-series forecasting model was developed using historical data from South African district hospitals, with robust standard errors applied for uncertainty quantification. The model demonstrated an accuracy rate of 85% in predicting future service utilization trends across the districts. The reliability assessment method provides a valuable tool for policymakers to enhance healthcare system performance and resource allocation. Further research should explore the scalability and adaptability of this forecasting model to other geographical areas with similar healthcare systems. district hospitals, time-series forecasting, reliability assessment, South Africa Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.