"TIME TO RETURN HOME": ANALYSIS OF RETURN MIGRATION TO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SOMALIA IN 2015-2024

This article draws on data from the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) in Somalia to analyse international return migration over the period 2015–2024. It aims to identify the spatio-temporal structure of return flows and the factors underlying their territorial concentration. The study is grounded in a synthesis of approaches developed by Jean-Pierre Cassarino and Russell King, conceptualising return migration as a structural stage of the migration cycle shaped by migrants’ resources and the absorptive capacity of receiving areas. This framework is complemented by the concept of political opportunity structures, enabling the spatial distribution of return flows to be interpreted as a reflection of institutional fragmentation in a post-conflict state. Empirically, the analysis combines Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) with Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression. The findings reveal pronounced spatial asymmetry, including a north–south divide, with return flows concentrated in a limited number of districts, primarily in southern and central Somalia. Regression results highlight the significance of urban status and humanitarian infrastructure, while geographic factors such as border and coastal location are statistically insignificant, underscoring the dominance of political-institutional and economic determinants.