Towards Sustainable Mangrove Forest Restoration: An Adaptive Pathway Framework from Zanzibar, Tanzania

Abstract Mangrove ecosystems offer vital ecosystem services like biodiversity conservation, coastal protection, and livelihood support. However, resource extraction, governance issues, and climate change are posing an increasing danger to these ecosystems. By assessing community views of restoration outcomes and identifying important enabling and restricting elements, this study investigated adaptive pathways for sustainable mangrove restoration and conservation in Zanzibar, Tanzania. A mixed-methods approach was used, combining focus groups, field observations, policy document reviews, key informant interviews (n = 31), and household surveys (n = 384). While qualitative data were examined using thematic and typological methods, quantitative data were examined using descriptive statistics, the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy, Bartlett's Test of Sphericity, Kruskal–Wallis tests, and Spearman's rank correlation. With a KMO score of 0.812 and a highly significant Bartlett's Test of Sphericity (χ² = 1684.527, df = 21, p < 0.001), the data showed adequate eligibility for multivariate analysis. The results showed that opinions on restoration results were generally good, especially with regard to coastal protection (Mean = 4.03 ± 0.77) and ecosystem recovery (Mean = 3.95 ± 0.79). Restoration efficacy (χ² = 16.34, p = 0.003), community participation (χ² = 18.57, p = 0.001), governance effectiveness (χ² = 15.88, p = 0.004), and satisfaction with restoration projects (χ² = 17.22, p = 0.002) all showed significant variations between villages. While environmental awareness had a substantial impact on restoration satisfaction (r = 0.574, p < 0.001), community participation was positively correlated with perceived restoration efficacy (r = 0.621, p < 0.001). Weak institutional coordination, scarce resources, low participation, and climate-related pressures were found to be major obstacles, while participatory governance, institutional collaboration, local ecological knowledge, adaptive management, environmental education, and livelihood diversification emerged as important enablers. To improve long-term ecosystem resilience and conservation efficacy, the study suggests integrated and adaptive governance strategies that bolster livelihood support, institutional coordination, and community involvement.