Tracing financial inclusion pathway to sustainable development: the criticality of population growth and energy intensity using a machine learning approach

Purpose Despite the criticality of financial inclusion, population growth and energy intensity in shaping production and consumption, economic and environmental sustainability, less attention has been directed to their collective and integrating role as pathways to sustainable development. This study therefore examines the critical link between financial inclusion and sustainable development in Nigeria, taking into account the role of population growth and energy intensity. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the Kernelized regularized least squares (KRLS) machine learning approach and Granger causality test to investigate the pathways of financial inclusion, population growth and energy intensity on sustainable development. Findings Financial inclusion path to sustainable development is not statistically significant. This is because the potential of financial inclusion are eclipsed by broader economic problems Population growth and energy intensity have significant dampening effects on sustainable development. These results have broad ramifications for environmental sustainability and macroeconomic strategies to Nigeria’s quest for achieving sustainable development. Practical implications Policies such as improvement of financial literacy and development of responsible financial behavior among the underserved populations can enhance the role of financial inclusion in sustainable development. Similarly, investment in education and human capital development, and adoption of renewable energy technologies can mitigate the effects of population growth and energy intensity. Originality/value The present study focuses on the pathway of financial inclusion to sustainable development, taking into account key variables of population growth and energy intensity.