Urban Growth Modeling and urban Sprawl Pattern analysis in multi-functional forest area using GIS in Yeka Subcity

Urban sprawl is caused by population increase, socio-economic factors, technological development and development policies, and is a major problem in Sub-Saharan Africa due to uncontrolled and unplanned growth. In this regard, Geographic Information System would help about determining the borders of urban sprawls and quick data production. The goal of the research is to determine urban sprawl from 2003 to 2013 in Addis Ababa, Yeka Subcity by modeling urban growth and urban sprawl patterns in multi-functional forest areas using GIS. The change in land use and land cover from 2003 to 2013 is manipulated by using a detection analysis, it reported that the total area cover of proposed land decreased by 24.82%, i.e. 662.46 Ha of land are used for residential and its related activities, which are not permitted by regulation and manuals of the city structure plan. The built up comparative analysis from 2003 and 2013, show a big conversion rate of areal cover and a proportional uncontrolled increased in a numerical data of built housing units. For the last Ten years in the study 20081 housing units are developed with a total area conversion of 86.19Ha of land for built environment. The rate of change in annual new housing growth for the last Ten years is 1430 in a year (1430Hu/Yr.) and the rate of new annual area consumption is 6.45 hectare in a year (6.45Ha/Yr.). The increase in the number of patches all through the study periods with in ten years (2003-2013E.C) it shows the rapid urban growth process in the study area. Overall, understanding, analysis and modeling of urban growth pattern evolution as a major driving force of landuse, especially in developing countries is great importance for the land management systems it is time for policy makers, city managers and urban planners to plan and cope up with the pace of Addis Ababa particularly in Yeka Subcity multifunctional forest areas urban growth depending on with proper implementation