Urban Sustainability Planning and Urban Outcomes in Rapidly Growing Cities in Mogadishu, Somalia

Abstract Rapid urbanization in fragile and post-conflict cities has intensified challenges related to environmental degradation, informal settlement expansion, inadequate infrastructure, weak governance, and unequal access to urban services. This study examined the influence of environmental and social sustainability planning and institutional and governance capacity on urban outcomes in Mogadishu, Somalia. The study adopted a quantitative, descriptive, and correlational research design using data collected from 280 respondents, including residents and NGO/CSO representatives of the barangay. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Relative Importance Index (RII), Pearson correlation, and multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that environmental and social sustainability planning positively and significantly influenced urban outcomes, whereas institutional and governance capacity emerged as the weakest sustainability dimensions, although it remained a significant predictor of urban outcomes. The regression model explained 66% of the variation in urban outcomes, indicating a strong explanatory power. The study concludes that sustainable urban development in Mogadishu requires integrated environmental planning, inclusive service delivery, stronger institutional coordination, transparent governance, and community participation. The findings contribute to the urban sustainability literature by providing empirical evidence from a rapidly growing and institutionally fragile post-conflict city context.