Vulnerability of disadvantaged households to extreme heatwaves and energy transition dynamics in the Gulf and African regions

This study investigates the combined effects of extreme heatwaves and the energy transition on poor households in Gulf and African countries. Using panel data covering the period 2000–2024 from the World Bank, NASA, and the IEA, an econometric fixedeffects model is estimated to measure the impact of temperature shocks and renewable energy development on household energy expenditure and welfare. The results show that each one-degree Celsius increase above the seasonal average leads to a 12% rise in household energy spending, while the energy transition mitigates this effect by about 3%. The findings highlight strong regional disparities: Gulf countries face higher energy costs despite full electricity access, whereas African households suffer from limited infrastructure and adaptation capacity. Policy implications suggest that energy transition strategies should integrate social and climatic dimensions to reduce vulnerability and promote equitable access to sustainable energy.