Where Does Hope Come From? Empirical Tests of the Mechanisms Behind a Mindset Intervention in Rural Tanzania

Economic development is often measured through tangible assets like income per capita and wealth. However, psychological resources can play a pivotal role in shaping individual and community well-being in developing regions such as rural Tanzania. This study conceptualizes hope as a composite of two interdependent components comprising aspirations and self-efficacy. Existing literature often examines these two components separately, overlooking their roles in fostering hope. Using panel data collected from 5,176 individuals in the Iringa and Kigoma regions of rural Tanzania, surveyed at baseline (2020) and followed up at endline (2022), this study evaluates the impact of the Empowered World View (EWV) intervention on hope and its components. The EWV model is a faith-based initiative that seeks to promote self-reliance by enhancing hope and fostering societal relationships. Participants in the treatment group received both technical support and psychological training, while the control group received only technical support. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with fixed effects and instrumental variables is used to analyze the causal relationships of the EWV intervention on hope, self-efficacy, and aspirations. Indices of hope, self-efficacy, and aspirations were generated from survey instruments using Item Response Theory (IRT). Our findings reveal that EWV participants showed a significant increase in the aspirations index by 0.077 (p < 0.10) and the self-efficacy index by 0.162 (p < 0.01), which, in turn, led to an increase in the hope index. Instrumental variables highlighted the influence of these components on economic outcomes, with self-efficacy and aspirations increasing hope by 0.209 (p < 0.01) and 0.505 (p < 0.01), respectively. These results highlight the transformative potential of mindset interventions and provide empirical evidence for the role of psychological traits in promoting future-oriented behaviour and sustainable development.