Zambian Presidential Election Analysis (2001-2016)

These data include Zambian presidential election data, Zambian census data, and Afrobarometer data for Zambia between 2001 to 2016. Along with the data files is a STATA .do file that automatically preps the data files for analysis and runs all models and diagnostics. This analysis is conducted for the following manuscript:

Presidential Election Outcomes and Related AfroBarometer Findings in Zambia’s Weakly Institutionalised Multi-Ethnic Party System, and Their Consequences for Democracy

Abstract: Presidential Elections in Zambia’s weakly institutionalised multi-ethnic party system involved three significant parties from 2006 until 2011 and two parties from then until now. The Movement for Multiparty Democracy was the winner until it collapsed in 2011, and the Patriotic Front has been in power since then. The United Party for National Development has finished 2nd or 3rd in all elections since 2001. We formulate four hypotheses and test them by analysing the role of ethnicity, urban-rural cleavages, and voter registration in these electoral outcomes using multi-level modelling. Next, we analyse AfroBarometer data on party support, collected at intervals between elections, and find that it often reports similar results. We find that all of these variables are significant in explaining party outcomes. Finally, we speculate why the current two-party system risks being undemocratic more than the former three-party system.