A Downscaled CMIP6 Dataset of Climate Variables and Solar Power Potential Projections for Zambia under Four SSPs, 2015–2100

This dataset contains bias-corrected and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections and derived solar power potential products for Zambia for 2015–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The climate variables comprise near-surface air temperature (TAS), near-surface relative humidity (HURS), surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS), near-surface wind speed (SFCWIND) and precipitation (PR). CMIP6 outputs were regridded to the 0.25° ERA5 grid and bias-corrected using monthly additive or multiplicative correction factors. The workflow used 1940–2000 for calibration and 2001–2014 for validation. The dataset includes individual downscaled GCM projections, selected climate-model ensembles, annual Zambia area-mean time series, inter-model uncertainty summaries, spatial changes relative to the 2015–2024 baseline, Sen’s slope trends with false discovery rate significance, photovoltaic power potential (PVP), concentrated solar power potential (CSP), inter-model directional agreement, variable-contribution results, spatial boundary files, preview figures and Python reproducibility scripts. Projection summaries are provided for the near-term (2025–2044), mid-century (2045–2074) and end-century (2075–2100) periods. The dataset supports climate-impact assessment, renewable-energy planning, uncertainty analysis and reproducible evaluation of future solar-energy resources in Zambia.