Assessing the Driving Factors of Deforestation and Afforestation in Rubavu District - Rwanda from 2000 to 2025

Forest-cover change remains a major environmental concern in Rwanda because national forest-cover gains may conceal strong local variations in forest loss and recovery. This study assessed the driving factors of deforestation and afforestation in Rubavu District, Rwanda, from 2000 to 2025. A mixed-methods approach was used, combining Geographic Information Systems, remote sensing, document review, household questionnaires, key informant interviews, and field-based interpretation. ArcGIS Pro was used to process and analyse land use and land cover outputs for 2000 and 2025, while household and institutional evidence was used to explain the drivers behind the mapped changes. Results showed that Rubavu District experienced major land-cover transformation during the study period. Forest cover declined from 7,743.12 ha in 2000 to 4,102.67 ha in 2025, representing a loss of 3,640.45 ha and a relative reduction of 47.02%. Grassland declined sharply from 11,567.88 ha to 1,234.81 ha, while settlement expanded from 1,606.51 ha to 10,125.88 ha and cropland increased from 6,816.53 ha to 10,206.06 ha. Settlement expansion was the most visible driver of land-cover change, followed by agricultural expansion, population pressure, fuelwood and charcoal demand, timber extraction, land scarcity, livelihood needs, and market demand. Afforestation-related factors included tree planting, agroforestry, plantation development, watershed rehabilitation, natural regeneration, and institutional support, although measurable non-forest-to-forest conversion was not detected in the classification output. The study concludes that forest-cover change in Rubavu is shaped by interacting socio-economic, environmental, institutional, community, and household factors. Sustainable forest management requires strengthened land-use planning, forest monitoring, agroforestry promotion, alternative energy adoption, watershed rehabilitation, community participation, and stronger institutional coordination.