Causal Effects of Economic Geography Economics Social Reform on Institutional Accountability in Uganda: A Difference-in-Differences Design

Rather than treating accountability as a unitary outcome, the framework theorises it as a multidimensional construct comprising fiscal transparency, service delivery responsiveness and citizen oversight capacity, each of which varies across spatially differentiated administrative units. The analysis proposes a difference-in-differences design that exploits the staggered rollout of District Development Model planning cycles across Ugandan districts between 2016 and 2023, combined with a composite spatial index of geographic disadvantage. The article makes three contributions: it specifies a causal identification strategy that addresses the non-random placement of reform interventions; it articulates a theory of geographic mediation in which distance from administrative centres conditions the accountability effects of fiscal decentralisation; and it provides a replicable geographic information systems workflow for constructing treatment and comparison groups. The framework's propositions generate testable predictions about heterogeneous treatment effects across urban and rural districts, with implications for the design of decentralisation reforms in low-income countries.