Causal Effects of Forest Management Forestry Adaptation on Yield Stability in Uganda: A Difference-in-Differences Design

Forest management adaptation is widely promoted as a strategy for sustaining agricultural yields under increasing climate variability, yet credible evidence on its causal effects remains scarce, particularly in the smallholder systems of East Africa. The analysis is structured around a composite spatial index of forest-agriculture interface conditions, integrating slope, drainage density, rainfall intensity, land cover, soil permeability, elevation and distance to channels within a geographic information systems framework. The proposed design exploits the staggered timing of adaptation interventions across sub-counties, combined with a spatially explicit identification strategy that addresses non-random programme placement. The framework is designed to estimate average treatment effects on yield variability, with particular attention to heterogeneity across agro-ecological zones. By specifying the identification assumptions, measurement protocols and estimation strategy in advance, the article provides a foundation for empirical applications that can credibly inform forest and agricultural policy in Uganda and comparable settings.