Heat, habitat, and habitability: mapping the persistence of African wild dogs under environmental change

Human-driven environmental change is reshaping biodiversity through the combined effects of climate and land-use change, with consequences operating across spatial scales. In Africa, rising temperatures, continued land conversion, and expanding human populations are expected to intensify these pressures, placing particular strain on large carnivores with extensive space requirements and low population densities. The endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) provides a valuable case study, as its persistence is likely shaped by both landscape-level habitat availability and sensitivity to environmental heat.   This thesis examines how heat and habitat jointly influence wild dog population persistence, from current habitat suitability to future demographic vulnerability. First, I use habitat suitability modelling (HSM) to assess whether suitable habitat may currently exist beyond the species’ depleted known distribution. I estimate that approximately a quarter of its historical range may remain suitable, including understudied regions and potential reintroduction sites, which could be prioritised for local validation and targeted surveys. I then apply this framework to explore how projected climate and land-use change may alter habitat suitability across the continent. Results indicate likely declines across much of the current range, particularly under high-emissions and land-use scenarios, although some localised increases are projected at range margins. Next, I investigate the physiological basis of thermal constraints, finding that body temperature is highly labile and strongly influenced by both activity and air temperature. Elevated environmental temperatures appear to constrain behaviour, with reduced activity likely reflecting thermoregulatory responses that may carry consequences for fitness and reproductive success. Finally, I combine HSM projections with individual-based models incorporating temperature dependent demographic processes. These results highlight strong contextual variation in climate sensitivity, with pronounced declines predicted in key strongholds such as the Kavango-Zambezi landscape, while populations in parts of East Africa may be comparatively less impacted.

Overall, my findings suggest that environmental change is likely to drive widespread but spatially variable declines in African wild dogs. Effective conservation will therefore require coordinated, multi-scale strategies that combine range-wide prioritisation of vulnerable and resilient populations with targeted local interventions to mitigate site-specific threats.