Model projections and HIV epidemic calibration targets for 15–44 year-olds in Rwanda, 2004–2020.

Abbreviation: DHS = Demographic Health Survey; RPHIA = Rwanda Population-based Health Impact Assessment. The blue line and light blue shades represent the mean and range of the model projections, respectively, using the 50 best-fitting parameter sets. The points and the error bar represent the point estimates and 95% confidence interval of the calibration targets, with targets from DHS Rwanda data in purple and targets from RPHIA in red. (A) For HIV prevalence indicators, 90.8% of model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets, with model performance better for women than for men particularly later in the calibration period. (B) For HIV incidence, 100% of model projections were a good fit, which was consistent for women and men.