Model projections and other calibration targets for 15–44 year-olds in Rwanda, 2004–2020.

Abbreviation: Rwanda HMIS = Rwanda Integrated Health Management Information System; RPHIA = Rwanda Population-based Health Impact Assessment. The blue line and light blue shades represent the mean and range of the model projections, respectively, using the 50 best-fitting parameter sets. The points and the error bar represent the point estimates and 95% confidence interval of the calibration targets, with targets from Rwanda HMIS or RPHIA in red (A) For the number of adults on ART, 75% of model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets. (B) For the percentage virally suppressed among adults living with HIV, 75% of model projections were a good or acceptable fit.