Quantifying Flood Risk and the Insurance Protection Gap in Ghana: A Frequency-Severity Analysis Using EM-DAT (2001-2023)

Flood disasters pose a major risk in Ghana, yet insurance coverage remains extremely limited, creating a substantial protection gap. This study assesses flood disaster risk and the insurance protection gap in Ghana using EM-DAT data from 2001 to 2023. The analysis covers 25 flood events and applies Poisson frequency modelling, severity distribution fitting, and return period estimation to characterize the occurrence and impact of floods over time. Results show that more than 2 million people were affected across the 23-year period, while insured losses were zero for every recorded event, indicating a 100% insurance protection gap. These findings highlight the absence of effective financial risk transfer mechanisms for flood-related losses in Ghana. Based on the observed exposure and the complete lack of insurance penetration, the study recommends parametric insurance as a practical and scalable solution to improve flood risk financing and strengthen disaster resilience.