Relationship between population density and land use/land cover change in Lagos, Nigeria: A 25-year historical baseline

This study presents a validated historical analysis of land use/land cover (LULC) change and population density relationships in Lagos metropolitan area (1984-2009). Using Landsat 5 TM and 7 ETM+ imagery with supervised maximum likelihood classification (overall accuracy 81.7-88.3%, Kappa 0.78-0.84), we quantified LULC transformations across six local government areas (LGAs). Built-up areas increased from 36.0% to 63.9% of the study area, while vegetation cover declined sharply. Population density showed strong positive correlation with built-up expansion (r = 0.85-0.97) and negative correlation with vegetation cover (r = -0.85 to -0.99). LGA-level analysis reveals differential urbanization: Alimosho experienced 79% built-up growth with 26% population density increase, while Ikeja showed moderate built-up change (12%) despite 89% density growth. This established baseline provides essential reference data for  understanding Lagos's transformation into Africa's second-largest megacity and informs differentiated urban planning strategies. We provide specific protocols for extending this analysis to contemporary data using freely available Landsat 8/9 and Sentinel-2 imagery.