Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Climatic Variability and Air Pollution in Selected Urban Areas of Lagos State, Nigeria

Air pollution remains one of the major environmental and public health challenges in rapidly growing megacities. This study examined how air pollution and key climatic variables have changed across selected parts of Lagos State, Nigeria, between 2015 to 2024. Emphasis was placed on how these factors interact over time and space, due to limited availability of consistent long-term air quality monitoring data across all selected locations. Simulated datasets were calibrated using observed regional patterns derived from satellite products (e.g., Sentinel-5P) and published empirical studies. Climatic variables (temperature, rainfall, and wind speed) and air pollutants (PM₂.₅, NO₂, SO₂, CO, and O₃) data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and geospatial techniques, including spatial interpolation and mapping. Spatial patterns revealed higher pollution levels in industrialized areas such as Ikeja and Apapa, while coastal and sub-urban areas like Epe and Ikorodu exhibited relatively lower concentrations. The findings suggest that climatic variability plays a significant role as a determinant to air pollution patterns in Lagos, although the level of influence varies across locations.The study concludes and highlights the need for improvement in monitoring systems, integrated climate–air quality policies, and targeted emission control strategies. The simulation approach provides useful insights towards prioritizing future research using long-term empirical datasets for validation