Understanding the complex dynamics of climate change in BRICS countries: Analyzing the COP26 and COP27 agendas

The urgency to address climate change becomes increasingly evident as we observe a rise in devastating natural disasters and significant changes in global temperatures. This comprehensive study critically assesses the adherence to climate targets set at COP26 and COP27, employing a dual approach encompassing theoretical and empirical aspects—basic and additional analysis. According to theoretical findings, China, Brazil, and South Africa are still experiencing an increase in climate change indicators despite their collective efforts. Notably, Brazil has shown limited progress in green financing initiatives. Moving to an empirical analysis covering 1995–2021, the study employs advanced econometric techniques, including panel ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CS-ARDL, and Grey forecasting models (GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1)). The past data on energy production using both renewable and non-renewable sources spanning from 2010 to 2021 to forecast energy production for the next 8 years, extending up to 2029. Results indicate that green financing, renewable energy consumption, natural resource rents, and government effectiveness significantly reduce GHG emissions. Conversely, economic growth, including its cubic form, exacerbates GHG emission trends. Moreover, the study validates the environmental N-shaped hypothesis in the examined countries, providing a complete understanding of climate change's intricate and multifaceted impacts. The grey forecasting model shows that Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are actively endeavoring to curb greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning toward renewable energy sources for energy production. This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions in green financing and sustainable practices to effectively address and mitigate climate change.