A Computational Analysis of Conflict Dynamics and Ceasefire Resilience in South Sudan: A Network and Event Data Approach

This original research article employs computational methods to analyse the structural dynamics of conflict and the factors influencing ceasefire resilience in South Sudan. Using a novel dataset of conflict events and actor networks constructed from ACLED and supplementary local sources, the study applies temporal network analysis and survival analysis models. The results quantify the centrality of specific armed groups in the conflict ecosystem and identify key political and seasonal variables that significantly predict ceasefire duration. The discussion critically evaluates the utility of computational modelling for peace and conflict studies, arguing for its role in moving beyond qualitative narratives to provide testable, evidence-based insights for conflict resolution policy in South Sudan and similar contexts.