A Computational Analysis of Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Implementation in South Sudan: A Network and Event Data Approach

This original research article employs computational methods to analyse the complex dynamics of conflict and the implementation of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Using a novel dataset of conflict events and a network analysis framework, the study models the shifting alliances and violence patterns among major signatory groups between 2018 and 2023. The results quantify a significant decrease in direct, large-scale battles but reveal a persistent, fragmented landscape of low-intensity, localised violence that challenges the peace process. The discussion critically evaluates these computational findings against the political and humanitarian realities on the ground, arguing for a data-informed, adaptive approach to monitoring and supporting peacebuilding. The conclusion highlights the utility of computational social science for providing granular, evidence-based insights for conflict studies in South Sudan and similar post-agreement contexts.