A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Efficacy in South Sudan

This methodology article presents a novel computational framework for analysing the complex dynamics of conflict and peace in South Sudan. It addresses the limitations of qualitative assessments by proposing a data-driven, agent-based modelling approach that integrates heterogeneous data sources, including event data, socio-economic indicators, and network structures of armed groups. The framework is designed to simulate the impact of specific provisions within peace agreements, such as power-sharing and security arrangements, on long-term stability. The article details the methodology's architecture, data integration protocols, and validation procedures, illustrating its application with a case study of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The proposed tool aims to provide policymakers and researchers with a scalable, evidence-based instrument for forecasting conflict trajectories and evaluating potential interventions.