Accelerated global cropland expansion and primary production increase in the 21st century

Abstract Spatiotemporally consistent data on global cropland extent is a key to tracking progress toward hunger eradication and sustainable food production 1,2 . Here, we present an analysis of global cropland area and change for the first two decades of the 21st century derived from satellite data time-series. We estimate 2019 cropland area to be 1,244 Mha with a corresponding total annual net primary production (NPP) of 5.5 Pg C yr -1 . From 2003 to 2019, cropland area increased by 9% and crop NPP by 25%, primarily due to agricultural expansion in Africa and South America. Global cropland expansion accelerated over the past two decades, with a near doubling of the annual expansion rate, most notably in Africa. Half of the new cropland area (49%) replaced natural vegetation and tree cover, indicating a conflict with the sustainability goal of protecting terrestrial ecosystems. From 2003 to 2019 global population growth outpaced cropland area expansion, and per capita cropland area decreased by 10%. However, the per capita annual crop NPP increased by 3.5% as a result of intensified agricultural land use. The presented global high-resolution cropland map time-series supports monitoring of sustainable food production at the local, national, and international levels.