Analysis of wind-speed characteristics and energy potential across North Central Nigeria

Unreliable conventional electricity supply constrains the processing and storage of agricultural produce in North Central Nigeria, contributing to food losses and insecurity. This study evaluates the region's wind-energy potential using 20 years (2001--2020) of daily wind-speed data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Weibull, lognormal, and Gamma probability distribution functions were fitted to data from Abuja, Jos, Lafia, Lokoja, Makurdi, and Minna. Observed wind speeds ranged from 2.5 to 6.1 m/s, and mean wind-power densities ranged from 16.8 to 45.8 W/m2, indicating potential mainly for off-grid electricity generation and other small-scale applications. Based on higher coefficients of determination and lower root mean square errors, the Weibull distribution generally provided the best fit. Average monthly wind-energy densities increased from 12.235 kWh/m2 in Abuja to 33.010 kWh/m2 in Jos, with intermediate values of 17.759, 20.254, 24.711, and 27.664 kWh/m2 for Minna, Lokoja, Lafia, and Makurdi, respectively. These results indicate that wind energy could complement conventional supply in domestic, agricultural, and industrial facilities across the region.