Assessment of Nigeria's SDG 7: Evaluating Access, Clean Energy, and Efficiency Since 2015

Despite its vast energy resources, Nigeria faces a critical challenge in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7), which aims for universal access to sustainable energy by 2030. This study provides an empirical assessment of Nigeria's progress by analyzing energy data from 2000 to 2024. While the national electricity access rate increased from 55.6% in 2015 to 61.2% in 2023, the analysis reveals a significant short-term policy trade-off. Employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the study finds that a 1% increase in investment in renewable energy (IRE) leads to a statistically significant 0.206% decrease in electricity access (ETA) in the subsequent period, suggesting competition for resources and infrastructure bottlenecks. Conversely, a reduction in carbon intensity, a proxy for clean technology adoption (AET), is a strong driver, increasing renewable investment by 353.07 units, indicating a reactive policy approach to decarbonization. The findings underscore a lack of integrated planning, where energy access, renewable expansion, and efficiency goals are not mutually reinforcing. To achieve SDG 7, the study recommends synchronized policies that combine grid modernization, targeted renewable investments in underserved communities, and stronger institutional frameworks.