Climate change reshapes potato (Solanum tuberosum L) suitability across the Greater Horn of Africa under future scenarios

CONTEXT: The Great Horn of Africa (GHA), where 75% of the population relies on rainfed agriculture, is highly vulnerable to climate change and associated extremes. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an economically and nutritionally vital crop in the region, yet the potential impacts of climate change on its cultivation suitability remains poorly quantified.OBJECTIVE: this study assessed current and future land suitability across the Greater Horn of Africa and identified the main climatical and environmental controls on its spatial distribution.METHODS: Maxent model was developed using the fraction values of potato-harvested area (FPHA) at 0.05° resolution and key predictors (climate, soil, and topography). Suitability was projected at 1 km resolution for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5,using an ensemble of four Global Climate Models.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: the model showed strong predictive performance, with mean AUC and TSS of 0.913 and 0.809 respectively. Currently, 27.41% of the region (1.68 × 10⁶ km²) is marginally to highly suitable for potato cultivation. Future suitability is projected to decline widely with the greatest reduction under SSP5-8.5 (13.32%). Increasing temperature and drought stress were the main drives, while remaining suitable areas were increasingly concentrated in cooler highlands. Climate change is likely to substantially reduce and spatially shit potato growing suitability across the Great Horn of Africa.SIGNIFICANCE: the results  provide a regional evidence base for targeting adaptation, conserving climate resilient production zones, and prioritizing mitigation to safeguard potato based food systems.