Climate change reshapes potato (Solanum tuberosum L) suitability across the Greater Horn of Africa under future scenarios using MaxEnt modeling

The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), where 75% of the population relies on rainfed agriculture, is highly susceptible to climate change. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an economically and nutritionally important crop in the region; however, the extent to which climate driven changes may alter its cultivation suitability remains poorly quantified, posing potential risks to regional food security. Here we established a Maxent model to explore the current and future regional potential cultivation areas of potato based on the fraction values of potato-harvested area (FPHA) at 0.05° and key environmental predictors (climate, soil, and topography). predictions were generated at 1 km resolution for the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s under three shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) using an ensemble of four Global Climate Models. The average AUC and TSS values were 0.913 and 0.809, respectively, indicating excellent model per­formance and strong agreement between observations and predictions. Currently, 27.41% of the region (1.68 × 10⁶ km²) is marginally to highly suitable for potato cultivation, Future projections indicate widespread suitability decline, particularly under SSP5-8.5 (declined by 13.32%), driven by increasing temperature and drought stress, with remaining suitable areas confined to cooler highland regions. These findings highlight the growing future risks to potato-based food systems in the GHA and underscore the urgency of targeted adaptation and climate mitigation efforts.