Climate Shocks Household Coping Responses and Food Insecurity Dynamics in Ethiopia

Abstract Climate variability remains a major threat to food security in agrarian economies where livelihoods depend heavily on rainfall. In Ethiopia, recurrent droughts, floods, and rainfall irregularities expose rural households to substantial production and income risks, potentially undermining their ability to maintain adequate food consumption. This study investigates the relationship between climate shocks, household coping responses, and food insecurity using panel household survey data from Ethiopia. The analysis exploits within-household variation over time and employs a household fixed effects panel linear probability model to estimate the causal impact of climate shocks including drought exposure, flood events, and rainfall variability on the likelihood of household food insecurity. The empirical results show that climate shocks significantly increase the probability that a household experiences food insecurity. Exposure to droughts, flooding, and irregular rainfall patterns is consistently linked with higher risks of food shortages, highlighting the sensitivity of rural livelihoods to climatic fluctuations. The analysis further documents coping strategy options households employ in response to such shocks. Most of the time, households rely on mechanisms such as drawing on personal savings, selling livestock assets, and receiving external assistance. While the use of savings is positively correlated with food insecurity reflecting the fact that households often rely on savings during periods of hardship the interaction between climate shocks and savings is negative and statistically significant. This finding indicates that households with financial buffers are better able to smooth consumption and mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks on food security. JEL Classification: Q18, Q54, D14, O12