The Dynamics of Food Insecurity in Ethiopia

This paper assesses the dynamics of food insecurity in Ethiopia and tests policy options and scenarios that could alleviate the problem in the future. The study assess food security based on the pillars; food availability, access to food and stability. A System Dynamics model is designed which integrate population, market and food production sectors and is used to analyze past and future developments. Model results show that both the food supplies and the purchasing power of the population were insufficient for ensuring the required daily calorie intake of the population. Land degradation contributed considerably to the poor average productivity of the land. Policy analyses show that policy options such as land rehabilitation and capacity building for skilled use of agricultural land, and inputs need to be combined carefully to account for their different implementation times. Scenarios on average rainfall and food expenditure show that the food production and the purchasing power of the population are considerably influenced by erratic rainfall and economic growth respectively.