Customer Attrition and Informal Energy Migration among Electricity Distribution Company Subscribers in Nigeria: Drivers and Policy Implications

Nigeria's electricity distribution sector faces a structural crisis driven by the progressive withdrawal of customers from the national grid. This study investigates the drivers of customer attrition and informal energy migration among subscribers of six electricity distribution companies (DisCos), each drawn from one of Nigeria's six geopolitical zones: Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC, North-Central), Kano Electricity Distribution Company (KEDC, North-West), Yola Electricity Distribution Company (YEDC, North-East), Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC, South-East), Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company (PHEDC, South-South), and Ikeja Electric Distribution Company (IKEDC, South-West). Drawing on longitudinal secondary data spanning 2013–2025 and primary survey data from 1,850 household and commercial customers across the six zones, the study employs a convergent mixed-methods design underpinned by Institutional Theory, Resource-Based View, and Agency Theory. Four independent variables—supply interruption frequency and duration, off-grid energy affordability, customer perception of DisCo service quality, and tariff regime/willingness-to-pay thresholds—are regressed against four dependent variables: subscriber churn rate, billed energy volume per customer segment, DisCo revenue per connected customer, and rate of informal disconnection from the national grid. Findings reveal that average daily grid supply fell from 6.7 hours in 2013 to 4.0 hours in 2025, while informal disconnection rates among sampled DisCos range from 18.3% (IKEDC) to 38.2% (YEDC). Structural equation modelling confirms that supply reliability (β = −0.421, p < 0.001) and service quality perception (β = −0.389, p < 0.001) are the strongest predictors of informal migration. Cumulatively, informal defection erodes sector revenue by an estimated ₦284 billion annually. The study proposes seven evidence-based policy interventions targeting grid reliability, tariff reform, DisCo recapitalisation, and hybrid grid integration.